On February 20, Phoenix New Media published the views of international affairs expert Ye Hailin, who appeared on Phoenix TV's "Unlimited Firepower" empirical commentary program, under the title "The Structural Contradictions Between China and the US Are Prominent, and Replacing Trump Will Be Hard to Change." In this regard, the author strongly disagrees!

 
[1] The author believes that major events in world history, in any era, have both inevitability and contingency in their occurrence and development. Often, the outcomes of historical events are predominantly determined by contingency. Examples of such events can be found throughout history, both in ancient and modern times, in China and abroad. As early as the ancient period, during the Spring and Autumn and Warring States eras, Qin King Ying Zheng was ambitious, sweeping across the land and unifying the six states. In the same era, Duke Xiang of Song, faced with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, hesitated and faltered, ultimately leading to the ruin of his state and family.
 
[2] In the early 20th century, Germany, also a defeated nation in World War I, turned the world upside down again because of Hitler, leading to World War II and dragging the entire world into the abyss of disaster. Meanwhile, Italy, a victorious nation in World War I, produced Mussolini, and Japan produced Emperor Hirohito. These three, sharing the same vile tastes, became war criminals of World War II.

 

 
[3] In modern times, from the late Qing Dynasty to the early Republic of China, China remained impoverished and weak, subjected to humiliation and passive beatings. For over a hundred years, countless people of lofty ideals were impassioned but never achieved liberation. With the crow of a rooster, the world turned bright. Only with the emergence of the Communist Party, especially Mao Zedong leading the Chinese laboring masses, did China achieve liberation and emancipation. From the Tiananmen Rostrum, the cry rang out: "The Chinese people have stood up!" In contrast, the former Soviet Union, a vast communist empire in the 1990s, was instantly destroyed and vanished into thin air because of Gorbachev, losing its dominance and falling into prolonged decline. Yet, in the past two decades, with President Putin's vigorous efforts, Russia has gradually moved toward recovery.
 
[4] Looking at the contemporary era, under Ma Ying-jeou's governance in the Taiwan region, cross-strait relations saw the opening of direct flights, postal services, and trade, fostering closeness and integration, nearly achieving unification. Unfortunately, the Kuomintang's own lack of effort allowed the Democratic Progressive Party, led by Tsai Ing-wen and her ilk, to seize power. Since then, cross-strait relations have become as incompatible as fire and water, nearly sparking conflict. Similarly, a few years ago, the heated dispute over the Huangyan Island in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China saw a dramatic shift. Once Aquino stepped down and Duterte took office, Sino-Philippine relations immediately became as close as brothers. The South China Sea remained the same, and Huangyan Island remained the same, transitioning from turbulent waves to calm seas. The structural contradictions did not change in the slightest; only the leaders changed. Furthermore, regarding the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan, during Prime Minister Koizumi's tenure, the two countries were at daggers drawn, with no interaction. Now, with changes in leadership, the Diaoyu Islands remain unchanged, and the structural contradictions persist, yet bilateral relations have become more relaxed and friendly.

 

 
[5] Therefore, the author believes that the preferences and will of rulers often determine the international landscape and the fate of people worldwide. As the saying goes, a single thought can bring life or death. In major world historical events, what plays a decisive role is not static, inherent "structural issues (contradictions)," but dynamic, unknown contingent factors, especially the personal will of different leaders. History is created by the masses, but this refers to a general, non-decisive role. History is created by individual heroes, referring to a critical, decisive role!
 
[6] Trump is a particularly unreliable leader of a major country, severely lacking in leadership qualities and demeanor. He is a hysterical, pathological madman as a president. His words and actions disregard the bigger picture, the world, the nation, and the people. He is a vicious and ruthless individual who acts solely on his own likes and dislikes.

 

 
Although there are serious structural conflicts between China and the United States, as long as Trump or other bizarre or reckless individuals are not in power, and instead someone like Biden or other rational, open-minded, and friendly figures take office, it is highly likely that China and the US can abandon zero-sum thinking, navigate through difficult times, balance and resolve conflicts, and move toward peaceful coexistence. Ultimately, this will help realize the "community with a shared future for mankind" advocated by General Secretary Xi Jinping, leading the world toward shared development and prosperity!